Bet Picks

On this page you will find a list of the current tracked bet picks from Newsome. All of these bets will detail which fighter has been bet, the recorded odds and a brief breakdown of the fight.

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UFC Liverpool: Kelly v Breese

Straight bet: Tom Breese // 4u @ -196 (51/100)

After taking some time off due to a torn ACL injury, this is a great fight for Breese to come back to. Luckily, Kelly isn’t known for his excellent movement & great footwork so I can’t see it causing too many issues. Kelly has an ongoing knee problem himself which is now strapped up during his fights. Kelly fights southpaw & his bad knee is on his lead leg. This will be a great target for Breese who is also a southpaw & loves throwing heavy kicks with that power left leg. Breese is quick, powerful, accurate & really gets behind combinations of shots with his straight left being very heavy. Kelly is going to have all sorts of problems against Breese; he’s the smaller fighter, offers limited movement/head movement, charges forward winging punches & with him being 40 years old, it’s hard to see him looking great against Breese. Kelly’s PTV is to clinch with Breese & use his judo to get him to the mat. But Breese has good TDD & a very underrated ground game too. Ultimately, Kelly is going to walk into some power shots early on, he will realise Breese’s power which will make him back off. From here Breese will be ripping kicks up & down the body [including that knee of Kelly]. I believe Breese will get Kelly out of there within 7.5 minutes.

UFC Liverpool: Knight v Amirkhani

Straight bet: Jason Knight // 3.5u @ -137 (8/11)

I honestly believe that Knight could be in trouble if he was fighting a heavy-handed fighter here, or a fighter with excellent stand-up. But Amirkhani is neither. Amirkhani is a grappling-heavy fighter who tends to not spend too much time striking before looking to get the fight to the mat. The great thing is here, Knight is not only the better fighter on the feet, but on the mat too; in scrambles, off his back & in top position. Amirkhani has shown that he doesn’t have a heavy top game, he doesn’t react well to scrambles [losing position a lot] & his cardio almost always hinders him late on in fights. The cardio is key here too because he gasses against fighters that aren’t really putting on a high pace & Knight will definitely fight at a high pace. I think Amirkhani will come out early & look for the single leg. Whilst fresh, he will have time in top position but I think Knight will wrap up that rubber guard on bottom to land elbows & throw up submission attempts & be the one scoring from bottom. The more active Knight is, the more tired Amirkhani will look & as the fight progresses I think Knight will have success busting Amirkhani up on the feet, stuffing/reversing TD’s & scoring TD’s himself. I think Knight will score a TKO victory in the third round.

UFC Liverpool: Allen v Burnell

Straight bet: Mads Burnell // 1.5u @ +250 (5/2)

Allen is a decent fighter adopting a boxing style but has underrated grappling too. But the common theme I’ve noticed with Allen & his grappling is that he really does well with trip takedowns & scrambles against fighters that are susceptible to this style of fighting. But Burnell has a solid wrestling game, great balance in scrambles & a heavy top game too. Looking at the striking between the two, Allen has crisp boxing fundamentals but doesn’t have too much power behind his strikes. Allen is the better striker, but Burnell comes forward really well, moving his head off the centre-line constantly which makes him a difficult moving target. Whilst coming forward, Burnell throws bombs over the top of his opponents guard which really helps him close distance to shoot in for TD’s. I think this is going to be the story of this fight. Burnell’s TD threat is going to make Allen very wary of overcommitting to any of his strikes & as Allen won’t be able to kick too much it leaves Burnell having to beat a boxer in the cage. Allen will try to scramble TD’s early on but will quickly realise he won’t be that successful against a higher calibre of grappler. Burnell will also realise this & the TD attempts will become more relentless. I think Burnell wins a unanimous decision.

UFC 225: Holm v Anderson

Straight bet: Holly Holm // 3u @ -162 (8/13)

This is definitely Holm’s fight to win here. Holm is coming off a loss to UFC Featherweight Champion Cris Cyborg & even took Cyborg to her first decision in 10 years. The reason she did what no Woman could do in 10 years is because Holm fights best when she’s counter-striking & being pressured. Holm has a professional boxing record with a competitive kickboxing background too. Anderson’s style is Muay Thai & is an aggressive fighter. The problem with Anderson here is she has so many holes in her striking game I find it hard to see Holm getting styled on. Anderson is very hittable, she walks her opponents down in straight lines & is constantly flat footed with her head rarely moving off the centre-line. Because of this she will be extremely easy to counter which as I mentioned before, is Holm’s forte. When Anderson does take damage she tends to freeze up a little too & look a bit lost in the cage. Ultimately I see Anderson being the aggressor & might have some success very early on until Holm figures out her predictable combinations. Holm will find all the holes in Anderson’s game & I can really envisage Holm stopping her late on when she has worn her down.

UFC 227: St-Pierre v Diaz

Straight bet: Georges St-Pierre // 6.5u @ -200 (1/2)

This fight hasn’t officially been announced. Dana White has said it’s in the works & this fight is one that I could see suiting both GSP & Diaz. I wouldn’t normally bet a fight in this circumstance but the betting line is crazy & with that being said, welcome to my joint-biggest ever bet! This fight will be at Lightweight which means GSP will have a tough weight cut but he is always in shape & is a true professional so he will take the weight cut very seriously. But to make things better, it’ll only be a 3 round fight anyway so GSP will be able to go as hard as he likes & even with a tough weight cut, I very much doubt that he will gas out. GSP’s jab alongside his kickboxing game will be enough to hang with Diaz & beat him on the feet if he needs to but I think GSP will do what he’s done for his entire career & hit TD after TD on Diaz. He’s one of the best MMA wrestlers of all time & his top control is so good it will smother the BJJ threat that Diaz will try to offer. Ultimately, I don’t see a PTV for Diaz other than that punchers chance & GSP is by far the better fighter wherever this fight goes. I think GSP wins an extremely comfortable decision. [As of 09/05/2018] -200 is a steal of a line – at Skybet in the UK & Bovada in the US.