Bet Picks

Below you will find a list of my current bet picks. For each bet I have placed, I will enter the bets into, tweet each bet on Twitter & then submit the bet onto this website. Every bet on this website will state how many units I have placed and at what odds; American Moneyline (English Fractional). Following that, all bets will have a brief explanation of why I have decided upon the bet.

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UFC Orlando: Moroz v Hill

Straight bet: Angela Hill // 2u @ -119 (21/25)

There is a pretty clear gap in skill & output in this fight, both favouring Angela Hill. Moroz has a pretty big height & reach advantage in most of her fights & in her last relevant fight against Taylor she had a 7″ height advantage. She really didn’t do much against Taylor even though she was applying forward pressure. Moroz was throwing jabs & crosses into the air which looked pretty awful as they didn’t have any conviction either. She threw some kicks at times & although Taylor did a decent job moving in & out of range, Moroz really didn’t do enough. Hill is the polar opposite to this. Hill has a good Muay Thai background, excellent movement, excellent shot selection & is very aggressive. Hill is 4″ shorter here but I really don’t see her having issues closing distance & getting inside the pocket with her style of fighting. Ultimately, I think Hill will be the aggressor in this fight, she will land hard leg kicks on the long legs of Moroz & mix those kicks with punches to really overwhelm Moroz with combinations. I don’t think Moroz will react well to the pressure & she could have a difficult time landing much herself. I think Hill wins a comfortable unanimous decision victory.

UFC Orlando: OSP v Latifi

Straight bet: Ilir Latifi // 2u @ +118 (118/100)

This is a bad stylistic fight for OSP as he struggles against pressure fighters & wrestlers. Corey Anderson was about to 30-27 OSP in his last fight until the flash head kick KO. And in Latifi’s last fight he beat a good talent in Tyson Pedro in the exact same way as Anderson was beating OSP. OSP has decent power & can be dangerous on his feet or in top control on the mat but I don’t see him looking for TD’s here. OSP does have a significant height & reach advantage so I think he will be trying to keep on the outside, striking at distance, moving in & out of Latifi’s range; this is definitely his best path to victory. But that is easier said than done when fighting Latifi, who will just keep moving forward, walking through shots to get the distance closed & clinch up against the cage. I think we see exactly this in this fight; OSP will have his moments in the striking exchanges whilst Latifi is trying to close distance but Latifi will be successful in closing that distance & once he clinches up with OSP I think he will score points whilst running the clock down a little in clinch before finally completing TD’s. I expect Latifi to just rinse & repeat each round which should give Latifi a unanimous decision victory.

UFC Orlando: Perry v Griffin

Straight bet: Mike Perry // 6u @ -256 (39/100)

This fight is a mismatch in skills & experience. Perry is coming off a very close decision loss to one of the best Welterweights in the UFC & Griffin is coming off a loss to dos Santos, so to match these two together is very strange to me. Both fighters are primarily strikers with neither one of them really prominent on the mat. This fight will absolutely take place on the feet [I’ll be very surprised if this fight does go to the mat] & then Perry is just a far better striker than Griffin with a better chin too. Griffin does throw combinations but probably not as often as he should. Sometimes he does throw one shot at a time & if he does that here, this will be an easy fight for Perry. Perry on the other hand does throw combinations together, mixes in low kicks & all whilst moving forward being very aggressive. I think ultimately here that’s what will happen; Perry will be the aggressor moving forward quickly & really making Griffin back up to the cage. Once Griffin’s back is against the cage I see him just freezing up & starting to cover up once Perry begins to unload with a variety of extremely powerful shots to the head & body. I think Perry hurts Griffin in round 1, drops him & starts the ground & pound until the referee stops the fight to save Griffin.

UFC 222: Edgar v Ortega

Straight bet: Frankie Edgar // 3u @ -169 (59/100)

I bet against Ortega in his last fight & I will say similar things here for this fight. One thing I said in that breakdown is if Cub doesn’t make a mistake in the ground/submission game he will cruise the fight. He was winning until he made a mistake & got tapped out. I am confident that Edgar will not make the same mistake. Edgar is a savvy vet who will keep distance in this fight & the fact it’s a 3-round fight definitely favours him too. Edgar is a D1 wrestler & I really cannot see Ortega being able to take him down at all, so again, it’ll take a mistake for Edgar to lose the fight. Edgar will have an advantage on the feet with his speed, movement and striking. Ortega will be getting hit & picked apart whilst trying to find an opportunity to make something happen for himself. I really don’t think that opportunity presents itself in this fight. There are levels to MMA & as impressive as Ortega’s BJJ is & in finding the finish I really think we see him simply outclassed here. There’s an argument that Edgar’s wrestling is that good it would suffocate Ortega’s BJJ & submission game but I really don’t think we see Edgar test that theory. I think Edgar wins a comfortable 30-27 decision.

UFC London: Werdum v Volkov

Straight bet: Fabricio Werdum // 3u @ -189 (53/100)

There is a very obvious difference in skill & experience in this fight; Werdum is a huge step up for Volkov. Even though Volkov is 6ft 7, he only has a 3″ height & reach advantage. Werdum is no stranger to fighting a taller opponent & I think one of Volkov’s clear advantages [height & reach] that he has in most fights won’t have an affect here. Werdum is a Muay Thai Black Belt under Master Cordeiro but I’m not sure though how successful he will be in the stand-up against Volkov. Volkov does manage his distance well & selects his strikes well too, however, I feel that Werdum will be explosive in his striking in order to close distance to pull him down to the mat where he will enter Werdum’s world. Werdum has the best BJJ & grappling in the Heavyweight division with a nasty submission game. Ultimately I think this will be how he wins this fight; Werdum will hang with Volkov on the feet until he decides it’s time to get the fight to the mat. Once Werdum gets on top of Volkov, if he has around a minute & a half to work then he will submit Volkov. I think Werdum grabs a submission victory early-mid fight.

UFC 223: Ferguson v Nurmagomedov

Straight bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov // 6u @ -187 (8/15)

When this fight was scheduled early last year there were a lot of unknowns on either side. Since then, Ferguson has fought a good wrestler in Lee & Lee would have won that fight if he didn’t have a staph infection which tired him early. Lee was landing takedowns at will & Ferguson struggled off his back against a fighter with very good top control. Ferguson did end up submitting Lee from bottom but Lee really didn’t have anything left by that point. Also since early last year, Khabib has fought a dangerous striker with world class takedown defence in Barboza. Khabib smashed Barboza & took him down every round. Khabib walked through some ridiculously hard shots to close the distance & really wore Barboza down to the point he was just struggling to stay in the fight. Now we have seen Ferguson v Wrestler & Khabib v Striker at a high level, it is quite obvious how this fight goes down. Khabib will close the distance on Ferguson from the very first round, get it to the mat & will dominate him in the same way as he did Barboza which will empty Ferguson’s gas tank very quickly. From here the fight will get easier for Khabib as it progresses & he will have the energy to do this for 5 rounds solid but I predict Khabib to beat Ferguson by TKO.

UFC Atlantic City: Anderson v Cummins

Straight bet: Corey Anderson // 2u @ +115 (23/20)

Both fighters are primarily wrestlers, with Cummins having the slightly better credentials as the D1 wrestler, opposed to Anderson being the D3 wrestler. However, this is MMA & I believe that Anderson is the far better MMA wrestler. Anderson uses his striking game well to close the distance & shoot TD’s. He has good entries on his TD attempts & has a near 50% completion rate which is a pretty good stat. Cummins on the other hand completes just over 40% of his TD’s which is a decent rate too. All fights start on the feet & I think Anderson is definitely the better striker; he lands slightly more strikes p/m & gets hit a lot less too. Cummins is very hittable & gets rocked very easily but to his credit, he’s very tough to put away but that chin is shot. I think Cummins will engage in the clinch & wrestling game first & might score a couple of TD’s early on which should earn him round 1 on the scorecards. But this will expend energy as Anderson will not go down very easily. I think Anderson will be the much fresher fighter in rounds 2 & 3 therefore giving him the option of out-striking Cummins on the feet or landing TD’s & scoring points in top control. I think Anderson wins a comfortable 29-28 decision victory.