Below you will find a list of my current bet picks. For each bet I have placed, I will enter the bets into BetMMA.tips, tweet each bet on Twitter & then submit the bet onto this website. Every bet on this website will state how many units I have placed and at what odds; American Moneyline (English Fractional). Following that, all bets will have a brief explanation of why I have decided upon the bet.
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UFC 223: Joe Lauzon v Chris Gruetzemacher
Prop bet: Under 2.5 Rounds // 1.5u @ +130 (13/10)
Lauzon is a shell of his old self right now as he is visibly declining; his chin has been checked quite a few times including his last loss to Guida where not only was he KO’d but he took a borderline life changing loss. He also only has a 1 round gas tank too but within that 1 round he is quite dangerous & aggressive with great BJJ & submission skills. Gruetz on the other hand isn’t a great fighter in general, but he does constantly move forward & has great cardio. His weakness is his submission defence, particularly the Rear Naked Choke that he really doesn’t defend very well. With all this said, I see this fight going 1 of 3 ways; 1) Lauzon puts a storm on Gruetz in round 1, gets the takedown & works a submission to get the tap out. 2) Lauzon doesn’t get that takedown or submission in round 1, Gruetz weathers the storm & subsequently catches Lauzon with a punch [most likely an accumulation of strikes] & gets the TKO. 3) Lauzon doesn’t submit Gruetz & Gruetz doesn’t find a knockdown blow therefore cruising to a decision. I think all 3 are likely, particularly 1 & 2. I’ll opt for method 1 with Lauzon catching that submission in round 1, which will cash this bet.
UFC 223: Ferguson v Nurmagomedov
Straight bet: Khabib Nurmagomedov // 6u @ -187 (8/15)
When this fight was scheduled early last year there were a lot of unknowns on either side. Since then, Ferguson has fought a good wrestler in Lee & Lee would have won that fight if he didn’t have a staph infection which tired him early. Lee was landing takedowns at will & Ferguson struggled off his back against a fighter with very good top control. Ferguson did end up submitting Lee from bottom but Lee really didn’t have anything left by that point. Also since early last year, Khabib has fought a dangerous striker with world class takedown defence in Barboza. Khabib smashed Barboza & took him down every round. Khabib walked through some ridiculously hard shots to close the distance & really wore Barboza down to the point he was just struggling to stay in the fight. Now we have seen Ferguson v Wrestler & Khabib v Striker at a high level, it is quite obvious how this fight goes down. Khabib will close the distance on Ferguson from the very first round, get it to the mat & will dominate him in the same way as he did Barboza which will empty Ferguson’s gas tank very quickly. From here the fight will get easier for Khabib as it progresses & he will have the energy to do this for 5 rounds solid but I predict Khabib to beat Ferguson by TKO.
UFC 223: Iaquinta v Felder
Straight bet: Paul Felder // 1.5u @ +120 (6/5)
I think that this is a good stylistic match-up for Felder. Both fighters are primarily strikers although Iaquinta does look for the odd takedown on occasion but he isn’t very prolific in getting fighters down & his grappling isn’t amazing either. If he does start shooting TD’s on Felder I’m confident Felder will be able to stuff the shots & put Iaquinta in a world of hurt inside the clinch. Felder has nasty elbows & knees inside the clinch which can really wear on his opponents. The problem for Iaquinta here is that he just doesn’t react well to kicks nor does he attempt to defend them in the correct way. Masvidal really picked him apart with kicks which started to affect Iaquinta’s performance. Felder is a solid kickboxer with quick powerful kicks & I think this is where the fight will be won. I think Iaquinta will start fast & press forward but if he presses too hard Felder will clinch up to work those elbows & knees. Felder will eventually get his distance & timing down & will start to land kicks to the legs & body of Iaquinta which will again affect his performance. I see Felder having so much success on the feet, hurting Iaquinta & slowing him down, that it wouldn’t surprise me if he scored a late TKO win.
UFC Atlantic City: Anderson v Cummins
Straight bet: Corey Anderson // 2u @ +115 (23/20)
Both fighters are primarily wrestlers, with Cummins having the slightly better credentials as the D1 wrestler, opposed to Anderson being the D3 wrestler. However, this is MMA & I believe that Anderson is the far better MMA wrestler. Anderson uses his striking game well to close the distance & shoot TD’s. He has good entries on his TD attempts & has a near 50% completion rate which is a pretty good stat. Cummins on the other hand completes just over 40% of his TD’s which is a decent rate too. All fights start on the feet & I think Anderson is definitely the better striker; he lands slightly more strikes p/m & gets hit a lot less too. Cummins is very hittable & gets rocked very easily but to his credit, he’s very tough to put away but that chin is shot. I think Cummins will engage in the clinch & wrestling game first & might score a couple of TD’s early on which should earn him round 1 on the scorecards. But this will expend energy as Anderson will not go down very easily. I think Anderson will be the much fresher fighter in rounds 2 & 3 therefore giving him the option of out-striking Cummins on the feet or landing TD’s & scoring points in top control. I think Anderson wins a comfortable 29-28 decision victory.
UFC Chile: Oezdemir v Shogun
Straight bet: Volkan Oezdemir // 4u @ -200 (1/2)
It really pains me to bet against Shogun, he is one of my favourite fighters of all time. But even though he is on a 3 fight win streak, those fights were against lower level competition & none of them hit very hard. The reason I mention about hard hitters is because I think the durability is where I think Shogun has declined. Oezdemir has weird power & has a lot of KO’s on his record. Oezdemir has pretty decent boxing with crisp strikes & combinations. He is also strong in the clinch with short sharp shots packing some power too. I do think the fight will take place on the feet but I anticipate Shogun trying to get it to the mat as he will probably have the same concerns regarding his durability coupled with Oezdemir’s power. I’m not too worried about Shogun’s TD threat though as we saw Cormier having to work for his TD’s against Oezdemir & he is the best wrestler in the division. Ultimately, I think Oezdemir will start having success landing strikes on the feet, he will then have a couple of TD’s to defend which I think he will & then at that point I think he starts to really unload on Shogun to find that fight ending KO punch.