UFC Liverpool Draftkings Breakdown
UFC Liverpool contains a much anticipated main event between the local fan favorite Darren Till and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson. As always, for cash games you are looking for 4 wins out of your 6 fighters. This is not a week to stack in cash, stacking is choosing 2 fighters from the same fight which guarantees you 1 win. In GPPs, you are looking for 6 wins to have a chance to take home the big prize. Good luck making lineups this week. This analysis should help you put those 6 fighter lineups together. I took a different approach in my format this week so let me know how you like this format.
The Main Event: Stephen Thompson $8.4K vs Darren Till $7.8K
Who’s riding the HYPE TRAIN? The truth about this fight is it could be a low volume striking chess match for as long as Darren Till’s cardio lasts. For this reason it would be a good plan to differentiate yourself from the field in GPPs by fading the main event in some of your lineups. The over of 3.5 rounds at even money is a great bet to hit. In cash you have 5 rounds of scoring so either guy is a good play at their price. The smart money has Thompson winning this fight by decision and Till carrying great odds value on Draftkings. Here’s my tape study tidbit, Wonderboy changes directions when he closes distance, basically taking his 1st step to the outside and his other foot is wide on his 2nd step which brings his head back to center. Wonderboy usually unleashes a two or three strike combo when he does this which he uses four or five times per round. A hard, straight Darren Till left hand could end this fight if he is able to time Wonderboy moving forward.
Top Tier Leans ($9.5k-$8.7k):
– Neil Magny $9.5K- Magny is the highest priced fighter on the card and I expect him to finish Craig White in the 1st or 2nd round. White is not a UFC caliber striker and he doesn’t go to decision. White pressures and tries to get the fight to the ground to catch his opponents in a submission. Magny should use his jab early to pepper white and wear him down and come over the top with a hard right to drop him. I like Magny by KO/TKO vs White who is coming in off a week’s notice.
– Nordine Taleb $9.1K- Nordine Taleb is going to outstrike Claudio Silva. Silva hasn’t fought since 2014 and showed a bad gas tank when he did fight last. Taleb needs to stay away from the takedowns and he’ll be fine in this matchup. Silva is a black belt in BJJ so no need to mess around with him on the ground. Taleb holds a huge striking advantage. I expect a Taleb KO/TKO in this fight. Taleb is a great GPP/Cash play on Draftkings in this matchup.
– Tom Breese $9K- Breese is another great GPP/Cash game play this week. This will be Breese’s 1st fight at 185 pounds. Breese is a southpaw who trains at Tristar, has good left kicks and a hard left hand counter punch. Kelly has been knocked out early by fellow southpaw’s Derek Brunson and Sam Alvey by early 1st round hard left hands. Kelly is 40 years old now and his dad bod is no match for Tom Breese.
– Manny Bermudez $8.8K- GPP option here. Davey Grant is better on the feet so I expect Bermudez to chain wrestle or grab an ankle early and get this to the ground where he can use his BJJ to finish.
– Eric Spicely $8.7K- Another GPP option. Similar situation to Bermudez but Spicely is a capable striker. Darren Stewart has a big right hand puncher so I expect Spicely to get this fight to the ground and finish. Stewart likes to clinch up and wrestle which may play right into Spicely’s ground talent here. Stewart doesn’t want to roll with a BJJ blackbelt.
– Molly McCann $8.9K- My 3rd straight GPP only option. She holds a distinct advantage on the feet in the striker department. She’s local and making her UFC debut but her opponent is very dangerous on the ground and will be looking to lock in a submission.
Mid Tier Leans ($8.6K-$7.6K):
– Jason Knight $8.3K- Jason Knight is due for a win. Coming off back to back loses, I expect him to be at his best in this matchup vs Makwan Amirkhani. Makwan hasn’t fought in over a year. He lost to Arnold Allen by decision in a fight he gassed. Jason Knight had bronchitis vs Gabriel Benitez which explains his lackluster performance. All accounts out of Knight’s fight camp is that he has made some changes to his preparation and we will see the best version of Jason Knight.
– Gina Mazany $7.7K- Mazany will go for takedowns and will surely get enough to score well in this fight which is expected to go 3 rounds. She secured 5 of 7 takedowns last fight and registered 255 total strikes. She empties the gas tank and the price is right.
– Brad Scott $7.6K- Scott is fighting Carlo Pedersoli Jr. who is making his UFC debut on 10 days notice. Pedersoli fought a month ago and got rocked in a hard fought decision win vs Nicolas Dalby. Pedersoli is tough and the better fighter but this turnaround is not ideal for any fighter. Scott is in his home country and had a full camp for this fight. I expect a good performance and he can score 10 times his salary in a decision win.
Lower Tier Leans ($7.5K-$6.7K):
– Darren Stewart $7.5K- Stewart has a powerful right hand that hasn’t been able to land for a KO victory just yet in the UFC. He can get a KO so low volume GPP play.
– Gillian Robertson $7.3K- Robertson scored 102 points in her 1st round submission win in her UFC debut. She wants to roll and attempt submissions so worth a few GPP darts.
– Mads Burnell $7K- Burnell is tough and goes for takedowns. He has a good chance vs Allen to get a win via decision if he can chain some takedowns together. He scored 93 points in his previous fight which was a 3 round decision. Lots of savings at his price.
MMA Analyst on the @JerseyBoysMMA Podcast