Welcome to MMA Betting and the Quick Fire breakdowns from Newsome MMA. The Newsome MMA Podcast consists of a Quick Fire Picks round so for each fight card, Newsome MMA will provide a written breakdown for up to three fights that were Quick Fire Picks on the podcast. These breakdowns will offer betting advice on the selected fights. The advice could consist of a fighter with a good betting line, a fighter that could be used in a parlay or even a fight to not bet on at all.
UFC St. Petersburg: Jotko vs. Amedovski
Jotko is a reasonably sized favourite in this fight & I don’t entirely disagree here. But I genuinely don’t think that sort of line is playable at all. Jotko will be entering this fight on a 3-fight losing streak along with back-to-back KO losses and a 12 month layoff. Those facts alone are enough to be very cautious of spending your hard earned money backing him to win. Amedovski is an 8-0 undefeated professional from Macedonia. He’s an aggressive, wild fighter with huge power in both hands but his lack of experience going deep into fights is concerning too. His level of competition is also questionable. This is a classic case of an off-form UFC veteran fighting a relatively unknown debutant. This is certainly a fight to absolutely stay away from, from a betting perspective.
UFC St. Petersburg: Evloev vs Choi
Evloev looks like he could be an exciting addition to the UFC roster. He’s 10-0 and is the M-1 Bantamweight Champion and coming from a promotion such as M-1, you can make the educated assumption that he has been battle tested. Evloev is a Russian that has decent power in his hands but often uses his strikes to set up his takedowns where he can control his opponent grappling. Choi is no slouch though & is a natural Featherweight so he will likely have a size advantage in this fight. Choi has crisp striking with combinations but he does allow himself to be backed up at times which is where I think Evloev will thrive. Evloev is sitting at around -275 which is a little high but I do think he gets the job done on Saturday. If you do like Evloev, he could be a nice parlay piece on Saturday afternoon.
UFC St. Petersburg: Aliev vs Nakamura
This is likely going to be a close and potentially uneventful fight. Both fighters tend to wait for their moments in their respective styles to engage in fights. Nakamura will be looking to pick at Aliev on the feet & at range making sure he doesn’t waste any strikes. Aliev will be looking to defend the attacks from the outside, close the distance with big strikes so he can find his entry to take the fight to the mat. It could be a bit of a chess match at times. Aliev will be getting in the cage for the second time in 12 months for the first time since 2013 which is a good thing for him. I think Aliev will have success in this fight if he can get the fight to the mat. On top, Aliev has a crushing top game with good topside grappling too. Nakamura’s grappling can be tricky but I think that the heavy pressure of Aliev can nullify Nakamura’s ground attack. Additionally, with Aliev fighting at home, in a close fight you’d imagine him to get the nod on the scorecards. The -110 line is also playable.